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Top 5 Tennis Betting Strategies

Publication date: 10/11/2022

What is a tennis betting strategy for? Strategies explain how to bet, provide a unified approach to betting, save time and nerves. In this article, we'll tell you about five popular tennis betting strategies and describe their features, weaknesses and strengths. We will explain everything with examples.

Corridors betting strategy in tennis

The "Corridors" strategy was originally used for basketball games, but over time it has been adapted for other sports, including tennis. "Corridors" are the placement of bets with different values within the same market. With a favourable outcome of the match, two of your bets win at once: the result falls within your 'corridor'. These variations are easiest to find in the "over/under" and "handicap" markets. Here's how this tennis betting system works.

A corridor in tennis is two bets, for example on Over 7.5 and on Under 9.5 games in a set. With a total of 8 or 9 games (6-2 and 6-3) both bets win. If the set ends differently, the winning bet will partly cover the loss of the second bet.

Example of "Corridors" strategy

For a simple example, let's take the match between Hugo Grenier and Vasek Pospisil. One bookmaker is offering odds of 1.23 for Over 8.5 in the first set. The other bookmaker will set the odds of 2.32 for Under 9.5 in the first set. Betting on both outcomes would be a classic "corridor".

Suppose a customer bets a total of 100 conventional units on both outcomes (65.35 at odds of 1.23 and 34.65 at odds of 2.32). One bet is sure to win. In this case, the bettor will lose 19% of the betting money. But if the client hits a corridor in the first set (exactly nine games), the profit would be 60.7%.

A similar strategy works for handicaps. To apply corridors for betting on the handicap is more effective for Grand Slam (men's) and Davis Cup tournaments. In these tournaments men play best-of-five sets. In this case the potential corridor is much wider and it is easier to find good odds.

In a match between a clear favourite and an underdog, bookmakers may have different interpretations of the level of advantage. Thus, one bookmaker will set the handicap 9.5 for a convincing win, while the other will set the handicap 6.5. Betting on both handicap 1 (+9.5) and handicap 2 (-6.5) gives the bettor a 3-game guarantee.

It is important to keep a balance between the size of the odds and the range of the "corridors" and to take into consideration the type of corridor:

  • Negative. If only one bet wins, it will partially cover losses from the second bet. This is most often the case. In such cases, the bettor hopes to get into the corridor and win two bets at the same time.
  • Positive. One winning bet completely overlaps the losses of the previous one.It’s difficult to catch those odds live. But if you place live bets on women's tennis, you will start to see such situations. Female tennis players often give up their serves, so "corridor" handicaps at different times can be caught at odds of 2.00 or greater.

The corridor betting strategy does not belong to the aggressive betting methods. It does not provide a significant increase in winnings. But even in case of failure the losses will not be very big. In the example above, the bettor loses 19% if one bet loses. At the same time the bettor gets 60.7% if they get into the corridor. Thus, one winning bet in our example compensates for three losing bets.

Strategy for betting on a favourite with a safety net

In this strategy, the bettor covers several of the most likely outcomes. It combines bets on a tennis player winning 2-0 in a two-set game and Over games. In order for the second bet to win, three sets must usually be played, e.g. Over 25.

Example based on a specific match

In Jan-Lennard Struff's match against Dušan Lajović at ATP Sofia (September 28, 2022), the odds are 1.45 for Struff to win. The odds show Struff's chances of winning are high, with odds of 2.20 offered for a 2-0 exact set score in his favour.

To work out your betting amount, use the calculator, which is easy to find on the internet. Enter both the odds and the bet amount. The calculator will divide the bet amount into portions so that you will get the same winnings from each outcome. In our example with a total of 100 conventional units, you have to bet 51.11 on Struff winning 2-0 in sets (at odds of 2.20) and bet 48.89 on Over 25 (at odds of 2.30). If one of these bets wins, you will get 112.44 in winnings and 12.44 in profit.

When does this strategy pay off?

  • Struff wins 2-0. The simplest condition is met. You will get 12.44.
  • Lajovic beats Struff in three sets 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. A bet on Struff's win loses, but a Over 25 wins and brings the same 12.44 in profit.

  • Struff wins 2-1 but reaches the set total (4-6, 6-3, 6-2). A bet on the correct score loses, but the correct total is achieved and the profit is once again 12.44.
  • Struff wins in two sets on tie-breaks (7:6, 7:6). Both bets win. You get 124.8 in profit.

But both bets can lose. You will get nothing with these outcomes:

  • Lajovic wins in two sets 7-5, 7-5. The score isn't even enough for the refund on the Over 25 bet.
  • Struff or Lajovic wins in three sets 6-1, 1-6, 6-1. A bet on Struff doesn't win, and the total isn't achieved - just 21 games.

To avoid these two outcomes (defeat of the favourite and not enough games), you have to be careful in the choice of matches. But that's what every strategy requires.

Note that by betting on combinations and systems of multiple selections, you pay a margin for each. In our example, there is a small profit by default. Every extra percentage of the bookmaker's margin will reduce it. That is why it is important to pick markets for such combinations from bookmakers who offer great odds on tennis.

Correct score tennis betting strategy

A betting strategy on the exact score in tennis is most effective when betting on huge favourites. This is one way to increase the final odds.

For instance, the odds of 1.19 have been offered on world No.2 Casper Ruud beating Nicolas Harry (ATP No. 111). Ruud has been playing better tennis lately and has had a decent record over the last few months. He will probably not just win, but do so confidently in two sets. The odds are 1.62 on the exact score of 2-0 in Ruud's favour.

When choosing a betting strategy on the correct score in tennis, take into account the following points:

  • Format of the match. Tennis matches can be either best-of-five sets or best-of-three sets. Depending on this, the number of options for betting and the size of the odds change.
  • Surface where the match will take place. As a rule, tennis players specialise in a particular type of surface. A tennis player may perform well on hard courts, but be terrible on clay.
  • Form of the tennis players. Check the sports news. Look for mentions of illnesses or strange quotes from tennis players.
  • Be careful with the rankings. World ranking does not provide the most objective assessment. It's better to look at recent tournament performances and consider the results of head-to-heads.
  • Stage of the tournament. In the early tournament matches favourites can afford to drop an extra game, especially in best-of-five set matches.

Example of correct score strategy for in-play betting

Correct score betting can be used as an In Play tennis betting strategy. Here is a popular example. A favourite unexpectedly lost the first set in a best-of-five-set match, but started to show his usual level of tennis towards the end of the set. In such a case, there is a great opportunity to "catch" great odds by betting on the exact score of 3-1.

There is also the opposite approach, when the favourite has already won one or two sets, but in subsequent games has given points to his opponent. In that case, it is also a good idea to consider betting on the exact score of 3-1.

Deuce (40:40) tennis strategy

A tennis match consists of several sets, and sets consist of 6-12 games (sometimes also a tiebreak). To win a game, a tennis player must reach a score of 40 and then take another point. If both players reach the 40 mark, the game goes into an advantage format. This is the kind of situation that forms the basis of the "40:40" tennis live betting strategy.

The bookmakers offer two options for betting on each individual game:

  • 40:40 Yes.
  • 40:40 No.

The odds for these options are different: according to statistics, only a third of games reach this score, so the odds on "Yes" are much higher.

Deuce (40:40) tennis strategy

Deuce (40:40) tennis strategy

Example of deuce (40:40) tennis betting strategy

There are two different "40:40" strategies, depending on which option you choose. Both are better for in-play betting, while watching the match.

Strategy No. 1: "Betting on 40:40: Yes". With this option, bettors place a bet that the score will be 40:40 in the game. To increase your own chances of winning, focus on the choice of match and timing of your bet. General guidelines are as follows:

  • A match of equal strength opponents. The odds of both opponents winning will be about equal before the match.
  • Neither player has a strong serve (less than 70% of first serve wins).
  • It is better to bet on the clay tournaments (here the probability of aces is significantly lower).

Watch the match carefully. If one of the players looks confident on serve, and the other is having problems, it makes sense to bet "40:40: yes" only in those games, when the second player serves.

Strategy No.2: "Betting 40:40: No". The statistics prove that this approach is less risky, as the 40:40 score does not happen in 70% of games. However, even here, simply betting on any match and relying on statistics is not a good idea. You have to carefully analyse the markets and choose a match.

The criteria is the same, only we are looking for the opposite situation:

  • A match where the favourite faces a clear underdog.
  • A match between two players who have great serves.
  • Matches on fast courts (grass, hard).

Over Betting strategy

Here we take a look at the Over games strategy for the final of an ATP tournament.

Why the finals? The answer is obvious - the huge motivation of both athletes, the desire to earn ranking points, to write their name in history and win prize money. It is in the finals that each tennis player will give their all.

It is important that there is no clear favourite in the game. The odds for the stronger player should be 1.40 or greater.

Example of Over 22.5 tennis betting strategy

Let's take a look at the results of the finals of the ATP tournaments in the period from June to October 2022. We have selected only those matches that fit the main criterion - the odds on the favourite were greater than 1.40:

Tournament

Match

Odds

Final score

Result

Boss Open

Andy Murray — Matteo Berrettini

W1 — 1.90

W2 — 1.90

O22.5 — 1.50

1:2 (4:6, 7:5, 3:6)

Win

Mallorca Championships

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Roberto Bautista-Agut

W1 — 2.20

W2 — 1.66

O22.5 — 1.72

1:2 (4:6, 6:3, 6:7)

Win

Rothesay International

Maxime Cressy — Taylor Fritz

W1 — 2.50

W2 — 1.53

O22.5 — 1.48

1:2 (2:6, 7:6, 6:7)

Win

Infosys Hall of Fame Open

Alexander Bublik — Maxime Cressy

W1 — 1.73

W2 — 2.22

O22.5 — 1.61

1:2 (6:2, 3:6, 6:7)

Win

EFG Swiss Open Gstaad

Casper Ruud — Matteo Berrettini

W1 — 1.82

W2 — 2.00

O22.5 — 1.81

2:1 (4:6, 7:6, 6:2)

Win

Atlanta Open

Alex De Minaur — Jenson Brooksby

W1 — 2.15

W2 — 1.72

O22.5 — 1.91

2:0 (6:3, 6:3)

Loss

Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag

Carlos Alcaraz — Jannik Sinner

W1 — 1.65

W2 — 2.28

O22.5 — 1.84 

1:2 (7:6, 1:6, 1:6)

Win

National Bank Open Presented by Rogers

Hubert Hurkacz — Pablo Carreno-Busta

W1 — 1.57

W2 — 2.37

O22.5 — 1.91

1:2 (6:3, 3:6, 3:6)

Win

Western & Southern Open

Stefanos Tsitsipas  — Borna Coric

W1 — 1.57

W2 — 2.37

O22.5 — 1.86

0:2 (6:7, 2:6)

Loss

Winston-Salem Open

Laslo Djere — Adrian Mannarino

W1 — 2.75

W2 — 1.44

O22.5 — 2.06

0:2 (6:7, 4:6)

Loss

San Diego Open

Marcos Giron — Brandon Nakashima

W1 — 2.75

W2 — 1.44

O22.5 — 1.88

0:2 (4:6, 4:6)

Loss

Sofia Open

Holger Rune — Marc-Andrea Huesler

W1 — 1.50

W2 — 2.62

O22.5 — 1.86

0:2 (4:6, 6:7)

Win

The result is that eight bets out of twelve won.

This betting system is very straightforward, and match selection is easy. The disadvantage is also obvious: the small number of matches to choose from. We also analysed this strategy for the semi-finals, but there the dispersion was large and the benefit was questionable.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most profitable tennis betting strategy?

Forget the word "profitable" in the context of sports betting strategies. The result of using a strategy depends on many factors, including luck and analytical skills. Using the same strategy by different bettors or in different championships will bring different results. It is advisable to allocate a small portion of your finances and test popular tennis betting strategies on your own. That way you will know which ones work best for you.

What is the most popular tennis betting strategy?

On this page you will find the most popular tennis strategies: how to bet on favourites, correct score and over/under, as well as looking for 'Corridors'

What is the best tennis betting strategy for beginners?

In our opinion, the best tennis betting system for beginners is the “Corridors” betting strategy. With this strategy you have the least chance of losing. It also gives good match analysis experience, and using this base, you can start applying other strategies.

Andrew Heaford

Site Manager