On this page, we will take a look at various sports betting systems and answer some questions about which betting system is the best, which sports betting systems work and which of them should be avoided. You will learn about all sports betting systems with examples, it is not difficult.
We recommend that you read the entire article before placing your next bet. Perhaps you will see the selected market in a new light.
Bankroll management systems, no matter how sophisticated, cannot guarantee betting profits. The betting systems’ strong side lies in the fact that it instils discipline: consistency prevents impulsive betting, and a single approach will more quickly reveal the strong and weak points of the chosen scheme.
What are sports betting systems and should they be used?
A sports betting system is a structured approach to distributing funds on betting based on mathematical calculations. Most sports betting systems work in cycles: once the cycle is complete, you can start over, walk away with your winnings, or try another betting system. Bettors use negative and positive systems expecting to gain an advantage over the bookmaker. However, no sports betting system can guarantee profits.
Please, do not confuse sports betting systems with system bets. A system bet is one of bet types that represents a combination of several accas. The system stake amount is evenly divided into several accumulator bets that are settled separately. For instance, a 3/5 system bet is a bet, where your 5 selected picks are built into 10 accas of 3 selections each. Thus, each acca stake amount will be 10%. Each acca is settled in the normal way.
Betting systems will not improve your betting skills. They will just help your bankroll management, as well as focus on the analysis and collection of information. That is why we believe that betting systems will be perfect for gaining an understanding of the essence of betting.
Please, keep in mind: sports betting is just a hobby, so do not try to turn it into a source of money. But it does not mean that you should not learn about sports betting systems and strategies. Any hobby brings more fun, if you delve into its nuances. In this case, they include betting systems.
Differences between betting systems and strategies
When it comes to gambling, the terms sports betting “strategy” and “system” are close in meaning. These terms have no generally accepted definitions, as people interpret them in their own way. On Match.Center, we divide these concepts like this: a sports betting system concerns finances, a sports betting strategy concerns a particular sport.
A betting system is an algorithm to choose the amount and/or the sequence of bets, based on a particular theory. Betting systems show you how much and when you should bet. They teach bettors to place controlled bets, select and distribute their starting bankroll.
A sports betting strategy is a method of choosing bets. Normally, betting strategies are related to particular sports and show potential gaps in the selection of markets to bet on. In most cases, sports statistics can help identify them. Betting strategies offer a framework for an extensive research on upcoming games.
For example, the Kelly criterion can help you identify value bets. In other words, these are bets for which the bookmaker has set higher odds than it’s supposed to be. It can be applied to different sports and types of bets, so for us, it is a system.
Simultaneously, in the real life of punters, betting strategies and systems are interconnected: bettors pick a sport in which they are well-versed, determine what sports bets they are going to analyse, and based on that, supplement their sports strategy for selecting bets with a bankroll management system.
If, in this fragment of the article, you have realised that what you are really interested in is not betting systems, but sports betting strategies, then check out the following articles:
Top 4 betting systems
Kelly criterion
The Kelly criterion is a betting system that can be used in several forms of gambling, including sports betting. Unlike most sports betting systems, it has a formula and evidence that explains its long-term profitability. However, it is pretty difficult to apply it in practice.
The formula of the Kelly criterion is very simple: the stake amount should be equal to the probability of winning minus the probability of losing.
The Kelly formula: S = (O * W – 1) / (O – 1),
O stands for the betting odds for a particular market,
W stands for the probability of winning, based on your opinion,
S stands for your stake amount (in %) from the bankroll.
With this betting strategy, punters usually bet a pre-distributed amount of their bankroll, given the amount available and the expected profit. Theoretically, the main result of using the sports betting system lies in the following: you bet more on markets with a high probability of winning and less on the betting markets with low winning chances.
In practice, the problem is obvious: to use the Kelly formula effectively, the sports bettor must soberly evaluate bets' chances of winning. If it were possible, everyone could win against the bookmaker without using sports betting systems.
Examples of using the Kelly criterion
Pros of the Kelly criterion
Cons of the Kelly criterion
Conclusion
Obviously, it makes sense to bet a larger amount of money on promising bets, and the Kelly criterion can help you do that. The Kelly criterion, however, does not directly assist in selecting value bets, although it relies on such a skill. You will have to learn how to estimate betting odds and determine value bets on your own.
Miller betting system
John R. Miller is a famous American bettor, the author of the book “Professional gambler”. Miller’s betting system is used for betting on any sports markets at odds ranging between 1.85 and 2.10. Unlike the Kelly criterion, Miller’s sports betting system is very conservative.
Miller recommends betting a fixed amount of 1% of the starting bankroll on each market until its amount increases by 25%. If the bankroll decreases by 25% due to a losing streak, the stake amount is also adjusted. Miller identifies a 2% stake as risky and a 3% stake as bankrupt.
For example, before the game, your bankroll is $1,000, then you should bet the same amount of $10 on each event. When the bankroll increases by 25%, i.e. up to $1,250, the stake amount will rise to $12.5. If the bankroll reaches $1,500, the stake amount on each event will be $15 and so on.
Miller’s betting system in American football
Miller used his system to calculate O/U bets for American football. The same scheme can be applied to other sports as well. In the match, it is desirable to record not just one or two, but at least two dozen events. Thus, the estimate will be more accurate to predict possible outcomes and the cost of failure of bets will be lower. For basketball and American football, you can evaluate points and chances of winning, but for football and ice hockey, you should avoid taking goals, but instead, for example, shots on goal.
Miller proposes calculating two ratings for each match between teams A and B: an attack rating and a defense one. Adding them up will give you the expected number of events from the team's side. Then, you can choose the type of bet the prediction fits: a total or win with a handicap. Here are step-by-step instructions for analysis to carry out to determine possible outcomes based on the last five games of the teams. Many bookies provide such statistics.
O/U calculation example No.1:
Opinion
The main advantage of the Miller’s sports betting system lies in the fact that you definitely will not go in the red, when placing bets. If you lose, the stake amount will decrease.
In terms of wins, the situation is a little unclear. In practice, successful decisions are often followed by losing streaks. And it is possible that your bankroll will grow, but as soon as you increase the stake amount, luck will turn away from you. Thus, during such a crisis, you will lose more than you won with your bets before.
“Ladder”
The “ladder” is one of the simplest sports betting systems. It is suitable even for inexperienced bettors. The objective: after a winning run, to get the predetermined profit by placing bets at very low odds.
Here is how the “ladder” works:
The “ladder” can consist of 3, 10, 20 steps or it can be based on the profit amount, such as “increase the bankroll by 4 times”.
Initially, due to low odds, the bankroll grows very slowly, but later compound interest will work to your benefit. For example, after winning streaks of 15 bets at odds of 1.10, your bankroll will increase by 4 times.
Of course, the main disadvantage of the sports betting system lies in the fact that as soon as one bet loses, everything collapses and the distributed bankroll is reset to zero.
An example of the “ladder” betting system
Step | Stake ($) | Odds | Result | Bankroll ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 | 1.2 | Win | +2 |
2 | 12 | 1.3 | Win | +5.6 |
3 | 15.6 | 1.2 | Win | +8.72 |
4 | 18.72 | 1.2 | Win | +12.46 |
5 | 22.46 | 1.35 | Win | +30.33 |
This is a successful “ladder” – the starting bankroll is tripled in five steps.
Opinion
From a common sense perspective, it is impossible to bet 100% on one market, even if you consider the victory guaranteed. Therefore, the “ladder” is not a betting system, but rather a mockery of them all.
However, in terms of hobby betting, it allows enjoying the main thing – adrenaline. In the final steps, it is impossible to select even a bet at odds of 1.10 when it comes to risking a big bankroll that has increased several times.
Bob McCune’s betting system
In the mid-twentieth century, Bob McCune was a successful bodybuilder. But he really rose to fame in the world of betting. At a mature age, Bob became fascinated with mathematical analysis of selections of markets to bet on at different bookmakers. His betting system is based on the analysis of the movement of the selection of markets to bet on.
The Match.Center team does not agree with this, however, Bob McCune believes that, without much knowledge of sport, you can succeed in placing bets and, in the long run, show efficiency ranging between 55-62%. And if at the same time you place bets at minimum odds of 1.82, you will go in the black.
According to McCune, in many leagues, the movement of odds is not driven by mass bets, but rather by large bets placed by competent handicappers or insiders. This is “smart money”. By reading the “smart money” movement, you can place smart winning bets.
Bob takes a look at odds, focuses on the last change and highlights several scenarios for the selection of markets to bet on:
When taking advantage of this betting system, it is convenient to use odds comparison services (dropping odds).
Examples of dropping odds analysis using McCune’s pattern:
Opinion
Bob’s approach has some strong points. It helps to make a habit of dividing bets into "smart" and "stupid" ones, to observe odds movement and selectively monitor events. It will definitely teach you to better assess selections of markets to bet on, that is why we classify it as a recommended one.
However, it is pretty difficult to put such an approach into practice. There are two main reasons for this:
Betting systems to stay away from
«1-3-2-6» system
This is one of the positive progression systems. From the world of casinos, the 1-3-2-6 betting system came to the sports betting industry. This is one positive systems, where no complicated calculations are required. The positive progression system consists of a series of four bets with changing stake amounts at each stage. The numbers 1, 3, 2 and 6 are used as a reference point. If you lose in the middle of the sequence, you will have to get back to the first step.
How to use “1-3-2-6”
Example of the «1-3-2-6» betting system:
Step | Stake ($) | Odds | Result | Bankroll ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 | 2.0 | Win | +10 |
2 | 30 | 2.0 | Win | +40 |
3 | 20 | 2.0 | Win | +60 |
4 | 60 | 2.0 | Win | +120 |
If your first bet loses, you will start all over again in the red. If the second bet loses, you will go deep in the red and start over again. The success of the first two stages and the failure of the third one provide a profit. If the fourth step is unsuccessful, you will only be left with the starting stake amount.
Why is this system ineffective?
Compared to other systems, the betting system attracts with its simplicity, however there are some mathematical inconsistencies. Let’s assume that you have qualitatively selected all four events and their odds of 2.00 correspond to a 50% winning potential. Then you will win 0.5^4=6.5% series of four steps. Even if you only lose in the first step (which is not the case), your minus of 94.5% of losing series will be $10 each. Winning 6.5% of the series is barely enough to cover such a minus. In practice, a large $30 second bet turns the system into an unprofitable one.
The Martingale and d’Alembert betting systems
These two systems are connected by "catching up", i.e. by multiplying the stake amount in case of a loss until a winning outcome is achieved. The martingale is the most widely used and popular system. It requires a big bankroll and nerves of steel: after a losing bet, you need to bet so much that the winnings will cover all the previous losses.
For instance, you place the first bet of $10 at odds of 2.00 and lose. The following stake amount will be $20 at odds of 2.00. In case of a successful bet, your next stake amount will be $10, but if you lose, then you will bet $40 and so on.
Check out our detailed explanation of why this system will not work for placing bets on sports in a separate article.
The d’Alembert system, named after Jean le Rond d'Alembert, a famous physicist, was invented in 1763. Compared to the martingale system, there is only one difference: a fixed amount, by which the stake amount increases or decreases for each next step. Therefore, after a losing streak and one win, you do not get back to the first step, but keep trying to win back until you go in the black. Alas, it means that sooner or later you will find yourself in a situation, where your bankroll runs out.
Examples of the d’Alembert system
Step | Stake ($) | Odds | Result | Bankroll ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 | 2.5 | Loss | -10 |
2 | 20 | 2.7 | Loss | -30 |
3 | 30 | 3.0 | Loss | -60 |
4 | 40 | 2.6 | Win | +4 |
5 | 30 | 2.0 | Win | +35 |
Why is this system ineffective?
Any catch-up-based betting systems attract punters with their simplicity and the illusion of a “reward for patience”. In practice, the first losing streak will bankrupt you. And such a probability is very high, given the fact that such systems offer to bet at minimum odds of 2.00.
Hoyle’s Press
The betting system offers punters to increase their stake amount by one unit after each win, but not after a loss. The approach was described by Allen Wilson in 1965 in his book “The Casino Gambler’s Guide”.
Two consecutive wins bring profits. The system is effective only for sports betting at minimum odds of 2.0. If the first bet is successful, bettors increase their stake amount by one extra unit. In case of a loss, the stake amount does not change. A new cycle starts, when +1 betting unit is achieved.
Step | Stake (unit) | Odds | Result | Bankroll (number of units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 2.3 | Loss | −1 |
2 | 1 | 2.6 | Loss | −2 |
3 | 1 | 2.0 | Win | −1 |
4 | 2 | 2.7 | Loss | −3 |
5 | 1 | 2.0 | Win | −2 |
6 | 2 | 2.5 | Win | +1 |
Why is this system ineffective?
If you bet at minimum odds of 2.00 without qualitative market selection, you will lose more than you win. Bookmakers never set “honest” odds, and if they are not mistaken, the winning potential will be below 50%. In the long run, mathematics wins over luck, and your losses will gradually grow.